October 14-Fargo Forum
ND voters undecided
Patrick Springer
The Forum - 10/14/2008
Adam Hamm leads challenger Jasper Schneider in the North Dakota insurance commissioner race, according to a new Forum poll, but 43 percent of voters remain undecided in that contest.
Among other statewide races, the poll shows Republican Gov. John Hoeven and Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D., heading toward re-election with huge leads over their rivals. The statewide telephone poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, surveyed 606 likely North Dakota voters Oct. 6-8.
Hamm, a Republican who was appointed to the insurance commissioner post a year ago, is favored by 34 percent of voters, while 22 percent prefer Schneider, a Fargo lawyer and state representative.
The insurance commissioner oversees regulation of the insurance industry in the state, with rate-setting authority for premiums for health insurance and other coverage.
“Obviously it’s going to depend on how the undecided voters make up their minds,” said Philip Baumann, professor of political science and co-director of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which conducted the poll.
The insurance commissioner’s race has largely been crowded out by higher-profile races in a political year with a hotly contested presidential race. That helps to explain why so many voters remain undecided about that matchup, Baumann said.
Still, the 12-point lead that Hamm has is a formidable gap for Schneider, who is making his first bid for statewide office, to overcome, Baumann said. Hamm is a former assistant Cass County state’s attorney.
Undecided voters tend to lean toward the incumbent – although appointed, Hamm holds the office – and to the political party they most identify with, Baumann said. According to the poll, more than 41 percent of respondents lean Republican, while 30 percent gravitate toward the Democratic Party.
“They’re both in Hamm’s favor,” Baumann said of factors that guide undecided voters. “I think Hamm’s going to win it unless there’s something unforeseen happening.”
Hoeven is shown defeating his Democratic challenger, Tim Mathern, a Fargo state senator, by 73 percent to 18 percent, a margin of 4 to 1.
In the race for North Dakota’s lone U.S. House seat, Pomeroy is shown easily winning a ninth term against Republican Duane Sand, who lost earlier bids to unseat Pomeroy and Sen. Kent Conrad.
Pomeroy has the support of 60 percent of the voters, while 28 percent favor Sand and 12 percent are undecided. If all undecided voters go for Sand, it would be a replay of the 2004 election, when Pomeroy defeated the challenger by a margin of 60 percent to 40 percent.
The poll shows Sand has work to do to get the full Republican base behind him. Sand pulls in 50 percent of strong Republicans, compared to 34 percent for Pomeroy. The poll also shows the incumbent captures 66 percent of independent voters, with higher support from Democrats.
Similarly, Hoeven, who is seeking a third term, enjoys wide support across the political spectrum.
Hoeven has overwhelming support among Republican and independent voters, and even draws 41 percent of strong Democrats, 50 percent of whom favor Mathern.
Rollout of ND poll results
- Monday: President, most important national issues
- Today: U.S. House, governor, insurance commissioner and most important state issues
- Wednesday: State ballot measures
- Thursday: Job-performance ratings of president, U.S. senators, U.S. congressman, governor and state Legislature
About this poll
Telephone interviews of 606 likely North Dakota voters were conducted Oct. 6-8 in a statewide survey conducted by the Public Affairs Institute of Minnesota State University Moorhead. The poll, with a sample weighted for age, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.